Sink or Swim?

It appears that the Tigers offseason has taken some shape: Al Avila is looking to trim payroll, and it seems that everyone... yes, everyone, is up for grabs.

Naturally, if payroll is a problem, then Detroit's resident dinosaur Mike Ilitch is likely not factoring in to the inner decisions of the ball club, but rather his son Chris is now pulling the strings. And if that's the case, the team is looking to save money now rather than spend it.

Which is fine, no one really wants to spend a bunch of money, they just want to keep it for themselves.

The problem is, after years of obscurity and poor baseball product of the field, the fans who remember the days prior to 2006 don't really want to venture back to that fold. It's not fun, and a championship-hungry fan base really doesn't want to see that all go down.

That said, this already bumpy offseason has already seen one fan-favorite dealt away in the name of saving money. Cameron Maybin, who was great in his return to the ball club (unlucky injuries aside), was traded to the Angels, in a deal that pretty much said 'we don't want to pick up your $9MM option or buy you out for $1MM'. The Tigers found a team willing to spend the money on that option and got someone in return for him.

Sure, that sounds good. The team actually got something in return rather than spending money to send Maybin adrift. At the time, we found it hard to believe that casting him aside, the current crop of candidates to fill that new hold in center field would be viable for the upcoming 2017 season... that being the likes of Tyler Collins, Anthony Gose, or JaCoby Jones, just to name a few.

At the moment, none of those names reek of excellence, so the Tigers might just upgrade, right?

Think better, dummy. This is a payroll dump, and not anything else.

With that thought in mind, this offseason will likely be awful in terms of putting a truly competitive product out there while saving money for this suddenly frugal franchise.

Avila has allegedly warned his players... all of them, that their names may/will come up in trade talks/discussions/rumors as we meander our way through the fall. Though with certain players making certain money, trading these folks away won't be easy - in terms of getting remotely equal value back for them - and that's where this offseason will get frustrating for fans. The fan base is used to having things resolved in break-neck speed, but it's the other way around when it comes to finding a suitor for players who may have some heavy baggage (contract or otherwise) to haul around.

The two players who will be impossible to find equal compensation for (never mind that both have 10/5 rights and can veto any or all trades) are Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander.

Starting with Miggy:

He's owed $28MM next season, $30MM/yr for the next four seasons, and $32MM/yr for the two following that. The last 2 years of his contract, 2024-25, are club options that are guaranteed for top-10 finishes in the MVP voting. Even if you find someone who wants Miggy - and let's face it, there's 29 other teams who want him - you will never get full value back for him. Teams who want to trade for him aren't going to want to pay the full brunt of that contract, which means the Tigers would likely have to figure out how to not only continue to pay for a portion of the contract, they'd also have to have a hell of a return for such a trade, and that's not even remotely possible.

Next up, Justin Verlander:

Trying to trade JV isn't entirely out of the realm of possibility, but again... getting equal value for him in return is highly unlikely. His contract is a little more friendly (in terms of time only, because it's still steep in price), and he could probably be coaxed into being dealt somewhere to a team who could take on the $28MM/yr he's still owed for the next 3 seasons ($20MM vesting option in 2020). JV had a bit of a bounce-back year in 2016 and for the most part, returned to form and has himself back in everyone's Cy Young candidate talk (he's a finalist for 2016). At the right price, he and the future Mrs Verlander could be hobnobbing in somewhere that's not Detroit very soon.

What about the newly minted Gold Glover?

Ian Kinsler made $14MM last season, and is only due $11MM next season with the Tigers and has a $10MM club option for 2018. Sweet deal, if you ask me. Of course, it's the Texas Rangers who made this deal... it just so happens that the Tigers picked up the rest of this when they traded Prince Fielder to the Rangers for Ian. Yeah, that's the 2nd best Dave Dombrowski deal ever, considering Prince was often injured and was subsequently forced to retire because of that, but hey, gotta get lucky once in a while, right? Except that those cheap Ian numbers collide with the fact that Prince is still getting Tigers money from that trade. Kinsler had a solid year at the plate in 2016, and he and Jose Iglesias are great together up the middle.

It would be hard for this fan to trade (or even try to trade) these guys away, even in the scope of payroll slashing. In large part, it'll be hard to just trade away all the money that's owed to certain players, because teams don't necessarily want the burden that the Tigers have put themselves in. Now, if you want to try and trade the contracts of folks like Anibal Sanchez, Mike Pelfrey, or Mark Lowe, then by all means... go for it. That will also be difficult thanks to their terrible 2016 campaigns and their hefty salaries.

The trade that would make the most sense for the Tigers this offseason is that of JD Martinez. When healthy, his bat is pure. But after a breakout 2015 defensively, his on-field presence and prowess took a few steps backwards and was proven to be a bit of a liability in 2016. The pop in his bat though should be enough to help trade away the $11.75MM he'll make next season. After that, JD is a free agent and would certainly be an unlikely candidate for an extension from the ball club thanks to the sudden penny-pinching. For the Tigers, there's no reason to assume they couldn't offload him for a prospect or two to begin this fire sale... err... rebuilding process.

The Tigers can trim up the payroll a bit, but should do it cautiously. I'm not too sure the fan base is confident in Al Avila after his lackluster first full season as the team's GM, and just because you want to trim payroll doesn't mean you should want to be not-competitive. Because if you unload all of the heavy contracts in the name of saving a bunch of money, the next thing that gets trimmed will be ticket sales.

No one wants to see the Tigers dip back into the dark ages, but the fans assume that could happen with the little chatter that has happened thus far. And that will make for a dangerous offseason, and an unbearable 2017 campaign.

The Detroit Tigers Offseason... So Far

So if you’re ignoring the baseball postseason and only focusing on the Detroit Tigers offseason thus far, you’re probably trapped in a glass case of emotions right about now.

Al Avila has disclosed some offseason plans, which include not chasing players via the free agent market and announcing that he’s not planning on  extending the contract of JD Martinez, among other things.

The nervous twitching you might see amongst your Tigers brethren is that this team wasn’t good enough to win despite having one of the highest payrolls in baseball so we gotta get better right just now, damn it…

Except that’s the thing: the Tigers aren’t going to improve via free agency because there isn’t anything that will help this team right now. And yes, the payroll is high, and chasing what is a really shallow pool of talent and adding to the bloated payroll won’t help. Which means only one viable solution exists:

If you want to get better now or for the future, you must trade a player. Or players. It’s going to happen and we might as well get used to that idea.

The current way of Detroit Tigers life as we know it isn’t working, and it hasn’t worked for some time now. Last offseason, we all praised Al Avila for a job well done (we did, and continue to scratch our heads over the Pelfrey deal) over the patching job of some of the holes in the Tigers roster: he brought in bullpen help and eventually filled that gaping hole in left field with a late addition which at the time was viewed as a viable replacement for the departed Yoenis Cespedes.

That addition was Justin Upton, who’s $22MM/season tag was high, and with his early production, was extremely laughable. The guy was striking out hard core, and until 3 days off in mid-August, was a complete failure as an addition to this ball club. After that 3-day break, Upton was knocking the cover off the ball and becoming a useful cog in the lineup.

So, maybe he should have taken those 3 days off in April, eh?

Perhaps, yes. Moving along…

The Tigers traded for Justin Wilson and signed Mark Lowe to help shore up the back end of the bullpen. Wilson started the season off promising and Lowe was a disaster from day 1. Lowe is on the books for another season, so that probably doesn’t sit too well with the fan base. Francisco Rodriguez was brought in the close games and with a few adventures or so, was rather successful at that.

With only 2 standouts in the rotation this season (Verlander/Fulmer), the bullpen was a necessary evil. But it was only evil at times, and that’s part of what doomed the Tigers in 2016.

Jordan Zimmermann had an awesome April and fizzled with injuries and inconsistency, so that wasn't fun either. Nick Castellanos was hit by a pitch that broke his hand. JD Martinez ran into the wall in KC and broke his elbow.

Imagine if the Tigers were healthy and performing up to par and not losing 13 or 14 times to the Cleveland Indians, they'd be in the thick of things...

But they weren't healthy. And they kept losing to Cleveland. And here we are watching them play on.

I dare say: if this club stays healthy and plays up to their actual potential, the Tigers won't need to do any major retooling. Yes, those are big "ifs", and that's the same line of reasoning for every baseball team in the league. However...

The trade bait debate will start.... 3, 2, 1,....

Let's start with JD Martinez. The most logical person to trade away now or at the deadline in July... He's been nothing short of amazing (in regards to his actual value; the Tigers got him for free), and his mini-extension with the club expires after the 2017 season. When he's not running into walls and breaking limbs, he's been a great power presence at the plate. His defense took a dive in 2016 vs his play in 2015, but if he's hitting dingers and such no one will care about that, especially a team that wants a really cheap rental to "win now". 

Ian Kinsler is another name that pops up. A man who's aging, but his production at the plate at in the field is still extremely relevant for the Tigers. A man who was acquired for another man who was forced to retire due to neck issues (Prince Fielder), he's been a guy who easily helped the team "win a trade". 

Then there's talk of trading guys like Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera. The only thoughts here are: they will be hard to trade because of 10/5 rights, contract numbers, age, etc.

At the end of the day, the "trade bait" brought up to ultimately help improve the team in some way are all popular players within the fanbase and the organization. While it's a necessary evil to make sure the Detroit Tigers are competitive with their large payroll, it's important to figure their future with their present. And that's not easy.

In reality, they could take one more shot, or they could take a couple of steps backwards and try and retool the organization - something they could do if they didn't think they could compete for a playoff spot. But consider this: they have a number of expiring contracts this upcoming season: Pelfrey, Sanchez, JD, Cam, Lowe... And Upton has an opt-out campaign... All of which are usually great motivators in performing well so that the next big pay-day comes. And that's a hell of a risk to take, but when you're looking to shed payroll and rebuild, maybe that patient one-last-season approach should be the one taken here.

The free agent market is dry, and the Tigers don't have much to spend. But that doesn't mean they won't be any good in 2017 without any major upgrades. And there's no real need to freak out over the lack of activity this offseason, because there's not much to banter over. The Tigers could stand pat and they wouldn't be any better or worse than they are now. Fans want to have the next big thing on the roster, but it's just not there. And the bad news is, the big things that are already there might be dangling out there for other teams.

Do or die in 2017... And from one of the most impatient people in human history, I say, just relax and watch the offseason play out. If Avila decides to retool, then so be it. But if he retools while there's a hair of a chance to win, then maybe we should call for Avila's head, and not the roster he's in control of.

Your Tiger Stadium Memories: In Blog Form

Recently, I killed some time at my favorite watering hole and shared my most memorable trip to Tiger Stadium. To be sure, it wasn’t the best day in Detroit Tigers or MLB history, but it stood out as an experience I won’t forget until the dementia settles in.

The ballpark has been gone for a while now, but I (properly) assumed that my Twitter followers would have a say or two about their own memories of “The Corner”, and I’m happy to share some of what was thrown my way.

Here goes:

This was the first submission via Twitter. The response to me was likely twice as fast as the average Frank Tanana curveball.

@DisplacedTgrFan I'll start-watching Frank Tanana's dancing curve from lower level seats behind home plate. Magical. #MichiganandTrumbull

— Andy Glantzman (@AndyGlantzman) January 29, 2016

This might be the most Detroit tweet I received on this subject.

@DisplacedTgrFan Fidrych comeback game (after injury). Got ripped off by a ticket scalper. Gave him a 20 expecting change. He disappeared

— Andrew Potter (@andypotter) January 31, 2016

This one sounds more like a law firm than a triple play combo.

@DisplacedTgrFan seeing a triple play in '68 involving McLain Powell Robinson and Robinson

— TigerTed (@EAJS44) January 30, 2016

If you can't beat Nolan Ryan by conventional means, just use furniture. Because it just doesn't matter.

@DisplacedTgrFan @HighOPS 3. Nolan Ryan's no hitter, 1973 I think. 1 out bottom 9th, Norm Cash comes to the plate with a 4" x 4" table leg

— Patrick OKennedy (@Tigerdog_1) January 30, 2016

I'm still awaiting verification on this one...

@DisplacedTgrFan my favorite memory was when my cousin pat hentgen pitched at tiger stadium lost and I got to give it to him for weeks.

— Andy (@detroitsports71) January 30, 2016

When you see Al Kaline, you should say hi, at least...
 

@DisplacedTgrFan once passed Al Kaline in the concourse after gm. Just me & him. He was striding purposefully, so I didnt speak. Big regret.

— Jennifer Cosey (@VivaTigres) January 30, 2016

Prince's dad makes an appearance.

@DisplacedTgrFan came 4 inches away from catching Cecil Fielder's 49th HR, the year hit hit 51 (last 2 were in Yankee Stadium). #upperdeck

— Farris Khan (@BobbleHeadGuru) January 30, 2016

Being young tweets:

@DisplacedTgrFan I don't remember because I was only two but I'm sure it was awesome. pic.twitter.com/SrSkvxbDzj

— Justin Marshall (@JTM21497) January 29, 2016

@DisplacedTgrFan 9/16/1984, my 8th birthday. First game. They beat the blue Jays. I was scared because of all the people, but that's where

— Elizabeth Meyer (@elmtree916) January 30, 2016

@DisplacedTgrFan my love of baseball and the Tigers truly began

— Elizabeth Meyer (@elmtree916) January 30, 2016

Bleacher creature tweets:

@DisplacedTgrFan cheap bleacher seats and lots of beer baking in the sun. I miss super hot bleachers.

— Ed Chism (@edchism19) January 30, 2016

@DisplacedTgrFan Some of the vendors in the center field bleachers sold more than hot dogs, Pepsi and popcorn

— Kevin Nelson (@RacoKev) January 29, 2016

(Yeah, that sounds like a party.)

How about some home runs...

@DisplacedTgrFan I was 5 ( live up by Lake Superior so didn't get too many) upper deck left field and Kirby hit one out in a loss

— Evan LaFave (@softballin2) January 30, 2016

@DisplacedTgrFan 84 WS. 2nd to last row in the upper deck. I was young but will never forget. 2 Trammell dingers. Morris pitched. Awesome!

— CJ Boerger (@CJBoerger) January 30, 2016

Hashtag: humblebrag.

@DisplacedTgrFan my grandfather's company had season tix 3 rows behind the dugout. My first 3 or 4 games were there.

— BJ (@gibbybj) January 30, 2016

This person had quite a few to choose from, so I just picked my favorite one...

@DisplacedTgrFan last memory: deciding game 5 of '72 alcs. We lost 2-1. But reggie jackson hurt on collision at plate. He missed the WS

— tom (@Tom_in_Ohio) January 30, 2016

A couple of non-Tiger mentions...

@DisplacedTgrFan Mark McGuire hit nothing but foul balls so a guy gave his ball to some hobo who yelled "MARK MCGUIRE, I KNEW IT! MY MAN!"

— Sara of Space (@helmerroids) January 30, 2016

@DisplacedTgrFan @YankeeMegs My first major league game Tiger Stadium, Derek Jeter first game.

— scott seeland (@scottseeland) January 30, 2016

Let's end with the memorable smell of "food".

@DisplacedTgrFan what I remember most was the smell. Upon walking in under the grandstand the smell of hot dogs hit you like a sledgehammer.

— Mike (@mjm52372) January 30, 2016

Quite the mix of memories, here. Mostly good ones, I might add. Perhaps in a handful of years we'll discuss some fond memories of Comerica Park. Of course, nothing "fond" truly started until 2006, right?